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India has never set long-term development goals for itself,  though various leaders have indicated what they would achieve in the next few years or even decades.

However, now that we are focused on 100 years of Independence, we should focus on India’s goals for 2047. To participate in this discussion, I will present here briefly three Nonofficial India Development Goals (NIDGs) 2047 that I have formulated.

NIDG 1 Make all Indians reasonably well-off in economic terms

This is the main economic growth goal. Hence, I discuss it here in more detail than the other goals,

In NIDG1, the term reasonably is subjective, and there has not been much analysis about what values could be seen as reasonable. It will take further analysis and discussion to figure out the range of values that are seen as reasonable.

This goal has five subgoals

1.1 Create millions of reasonably paying jobs for young people of all skill levels

India is a young country with millions coming of working age for years to come. Unfortunately, India does not currently and will not in the near future give all of them a high level of skills. Even many of those who make it to college don’t acquire enough high skills.

So, the economy must create earning private-sector opportunities for people with various skill levels. This is the highest priority for the Indian economy, and job creation should not be seen as a mere by-product of the functioning of the economy.

1.2 Attain sustained high average real GDP growth rates

We know that rising GDP is not the same as greater economic progress. Nevertheless, it is well-established that countries with rising GDP have reduced poverty faster than other countries. Thus, we cannot ignore GDP growth while ensuring that this is not the only goal.

China’s GDP grew at an average of just under 9% over 30 years. India should aim similarly high.

1.3 Keep economic inequalities in check, and promote equality of opportunity for all

It is well-known that India’s income and wealth inequalities have increased steadily for some decades. Further increase can lead to social unrest. This is why so many governments use subsidies to ensure that the consumption levels of low-income people do not lead to social unrest.

In India, it is essential to promote equality of opportunity,  particularly for the young. Equality of opportunity includes education, health, broadband, lack of discrimination on the basis of traditional identities such as religion or caste, and other relevant variables that affect a person’s opportunities. Since there is no way yet to measure equality of opportunity, we need further analysis and discussion to be able to form suitable public policies.   

1.4 Provide targeted and effective subsidies as needed

India’s economy does not deliver enough income to many people. So, it becomes politically and socially expedient to subsidize them. The outcome is an increasing number of freebies, which usually squeezes out other critical items from the budget. Hence, it is important to ensure that the subsidies that are provided are targeted and effective. This requires further careful and detailed analysis.

1.5 Keep local and global pollution in check

Past economic growth in India has led to increasing local pollution. For example, Ganga has become polluted in the last few decades, and efforts to clean it have delivered only partial results so far. And, Delhi’s air becomes toxic every winter, without any meaningful success yet in reducing the pollution.

Politicians tend to support increased production over environmental protection, as higher production increases short-term jobs and incomes, though causing long-term losses. Thus, it is up to nonprofit institutions to be vigilant, and alert people to likely anti-environment developments in their surrounding areas.

On global pollution control, India faces a complex dilemma. Coal and other fossil fuels often meet India’s increasing energy needs quickly and conveniently; for example, the spread of LPG cooking has helped rural families. This remains true even as India makes good progress on renewable energy, and wants to contribute to the effort to stop climate change. The issue is: What’s the balance between India’s own needs and its international obligations? This also  needs further analysis and discussion.

NIDG 2 Improve the quality of life for all Indians by developing efficient, effective, and responsive (EER) governance at all levels

India has governance at the level of the Union and State governments, Panchayati Raj bodies, municipal authorities, and district authorities. All of them need further improvement to provide EER governance to the people.

2.1 Provide quality public goods/services efficiently

Here the term public goods is used in economic theory; examples are national defence, law and order, and judicial system. In particular, the law and order system and the judicial system need major improvements. This will require significant government investments, but budgets are tight because of increased subsidies. Further, there continues to be corruption and inefficiencies in governance, which has a negative impact on people’s lives. Still, we should note that digitalization has helped to improve the provision of some of the services.In

2.2 Create world-class public agencies, including utilities (private or public)

Public agencies provide normal (not public) goods/services to people, such as (i) permits, various approvals, (ii) garbage collection, street drainage, and (iii) traffic flow and safety. Various levels of government will have to work hard and improve significantly to read world-level quality.

Utilities provide various services, such as electricity, water supply, and ICT services, which include Wi-Fi. All three have problems, such as poor electricity supply from various power discoms, water shortages in many cities, slow and unreliable Wi-Fi in cities, and poor in many rural areas. All of these will need significant investment and operational improvements.

NIDG 3 Become a leading worldwide economic power

Today, India is the fastest growing economy in the world, but that does not make India a world economic power because India’s base, from which India is growing, is quite low by international standards.

3.1 Become competitive with China, our real competitor, and become a regional leader

This is a difficult task because China is far ahead of India in GDP and modern technology, with the exception of India’s moon landing. Since 1990, China’s economy has grown so much faster than India’s that the China-India GDP per capita ratio has increased steadily from around 1 in 1990 to around 5 in 2022. Further, India depends upon China for imports of critical industrial equipment and materials.

Nevertheless, there are indications that China’s economy is slowing down. This gives India an opening to make a major effort to catch up to China. This catching-up will make India a regional leader.

3.2 Use international markets to our benefit while keeping domestic consequences in mind

India’s closed-economy, limited-imports economic model of the early decades after Independence failed to deliver good economic progress. The economy has done far better with a more open economy in the recent decades, i.e., international trade and foreign funds have, overall, helped India. Yet, in India, there remain concerns about the adverse short-term effects of imported goods/services on local production and employment. We need more analysis and discussion to reach a consensus about how to balance the benefits against the concerns.

3.3 Make the rupee an international currency

Today, the rupee is not an international currency. It is not accepted in foreign countries, and there are limits as to how many rupees Indians can convert into foreign currency. This lack of full convertibility is a sign of India’s weakness in the world economy. Those weaknesses will have to be overcome before India makes the rupee an international currency. So, efforts to overcome these weaknesses will have to begin now so that the rupee is on its way to becoming an international currency.

In conclusion, these three goals seem to be enough to broadly guide India’s economy for at least the next two decades. Although they have been stated as separate goals, they are inter-related and have to be taken together as a package. The next steps are to discuss these goals, change them as necessary, and figure out what has to be done in a time-bound manner to achieve them.

About the Author

Subodh Mathur, an economist (Ph. D. MIT), has worked in many countries. He is the author of the book called ‘India's Path to Prosperity 2022-2047: A Workable Agenda for the Next 10-15 Years’. The author can be reached at scmathur@gmail.com